Monday, November 9, 2009

The Numbers Don't Lie?

"'Men lie, women lie, numbers don't" (Jay-Z: The Blueprint 3; Reminder). Well I am here to say that numbers, stats, findings, recordings, charts, graphs, tables, they all distort views like kaleidoscopes. It is my belief that you can twist and angle any set of data to either help make your point or hurt it. There are so many tricks to manipulating information that it's amazing that anyone falls for the revelations some of them unveil.

Jay-Z has released 11 studio albums. Jay-Z has 11 number 1 albums. He just passed Elvis. That number doesn't lie.

Well from the onset, sure. Eleven times, his CD has reached number one on the charts. But we're comparing him to the rest of the world right? The rest of history. Some might say that because of this number, Jay-Z is the most successful, most popular artist of all time. But there is no way to compare. You're talking about different times of the world. Times when people didn't buy music because they didn't have the means to play it. People that had different interests than music. People that had to deal with
World Wars. People that didn't go to college where music tastes are passed around faster than herpes. Barely. And now and days, there are so many more genres, artists of other kinda of music can't compete. Careers don't seem to last as long. Fads come and go. And maybe all of that is a testament to Jay-Z, that he picked the right road and endured what others could not. And he may very well be the most successful musical artist of all time. But don't you tell me that it's because the amount of number 1 records he has.

Just look at how many other stats that are looked at where you can't rule out the factor of variables. Only scientific experiments that eliminate the variables can be trusted.

Sports Stats

Baseball:

Batting Average: Depends on number of at bats, what league you're in, what team you're on, where you play, who your opponents are, what the weather is like, how strong your bats are, what way the wind is blowing, etc.

Runs Batted In: Depends on how often your teammates get in scoring position, where you hit in the lineup, how many outs there are, in addition to everything else that I mentioned with batting average.

Football:

Yards per Carry: Depends on your offensive line, the team you're playing, the league you're in, where you play, what the weather is like, what the field is made out of, etc.

Receptions: Depends on the defenders, the quarterback, the weather conditions, the time of the game, plus
everything from the previous one.

Golf:

Strokes: Depends on the time of day, the amount of wind. You could take the exact same shot, same motion, same speed, same percentage of the ball hit, and it will do different things every time. Why? Well because it would be very rare for the air to be identical every single shot. So even non-team sports lace in factors that influence the purity of stats.

Movie Stats

Highest Grossing Film of All Time
Most Tickets Sold of All Time
Highest Opening Weekend

Most Rented
ETC

All of these, even when 'adjusted for inflation,' still don't consider social times, economic times, and just times in general (think woman's rights, African American rights, etc.). Can you ever compare movies between decades, between genres, between mediums? Way too many variables.

Work Stats

A new program is started that is supposed to decrease the number of mistakes. Well how will you know if the program is working? By monitoring the number of mistakes, silly! Less mistakes = program successful. But what if the people are just trying a little harder? Maybe someone gave the team a pep-talk. Maybe there was a new hire that's skewing all the results. Maybe a new kind of problem is arising, causing what seems to be more mistakes.


I only gave you a handful of examples, but there really are a countless number of things I could have shown you. What I should have done is find a stat to tell me how many stats are actually inaccurate. But, even that would be inaccurate. So to draw this all back into the big picture, stats can be used to mislead and misrepresent, so as is the case with all scenarios, situations, hassles, or every day occurrences, it is always encouraged to dig a little deeper than the surface, see if you can find out the facts for yourself, and make your own decision, not what someone is trying to sell you on.

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